How to Bet on the Winners

3/5/2009

The problem with promising an article for a magazine or a web site is that eventually you have to actually do it, or you’re on your way to a swimming lesson at Guantanamo. Actually, Gitmo, come to think of it, is not an unpleasant place at all, as I recall from when we were there in ‘46, when our carrier Randolph put in for fuel when we were on the way to the Mediterranean to scare the Russians, and the fighter pilots (that’s us) swarmed ashore, with those dance halls waiting right across the invisible border with Cuba, with their welcome signs out, and with all those beautiful (how beautiful depended on how much you had to drink) ladies waiting to dance with you and help you buy Cuba Libras or Rum & Coke.

As you see, we were not sophisticated drinkers. If the word “cool” had been invented at the time, we would have ignorantly thought ourselves cool with Cuba Libras, although, to our credit as bona fide gourmets with booze, our official squadron drink back at the base in Quonset Point was Jack Daniel’s, which we quaffed in quantity, then claimed as a dependent on our income tax return.

But, I digress. (As is the custom here in John Q’s Corner.) With a clenching of teeth and a deep breath of determination, we’re off on the latest adventure, “How to Win the Betting Pool” at a major show jumping competition, preparing for the 2009 Rolex FEI World Cup Jumping Finals at Las Vegas.

The answer is simple. You bet on the horses who are going to win. How do you know which horses are going to win, you might ask? Well, show jumping is a form sport, in which the favorite three horses actually do place in the Top Ten eight out of ten times, and if you pick your ten horses intelligently, five or six or seven will end up in the Top Ten. Did what I just wrote make sense? Or are you as confused as I am by now?

Outslicking the Slickers

So, okay, where and how do you find your Top Ten horses and riders to bet on? The simplest way is to go to this place on your computer called Google, and it will blow your mind, it’s sitting there waiting for you ring the doorbell of the FEI or USEF to ask, please, sir, (or more likely madam these days,) can you tell me who’s leading in the jumper standings around the world and in the qualification for the World Cup Final at Las Vegas this April? And there it is, like lightning, right there on your screen! Absolutely amazing!

So, okay, if you are a computer ignoramus and don’t really know how to do this Google stuff and feel lucky if you get the answer the same day you start wildly punching the keys, I recommend that you take lessons, which cost a fortune, but teach even you, the ignoramus, how the computer intelligent gentry do that, and after you learn how, if you would teach me, I would be most appreciative. Jeez!

There is an alternative. If your brain begins to smoke and smoulder and melt into hot black jello when you go beyond You’ve Got Mail on the computer, there is the simple alternative of betting on the names you know. Even the average dunces remember names like Meredith Michaels Beerbaum or Beezie Madden or Ludger Beerbaum or McClain Ward or those Canadian guys Ian Millar and Eric Lamaze, and right there you’ve got your first six. The point is that the famous riders are not just good at what they do, they are the best, so bet on them. Hang on and watch how its done.. 

Team Jumping Medals at Hong Kong

You are in Hong Kong, the site of the 2008 equestrian Olympics, either in person or by television. Your final step in betting on the right horses is to watch every horse in the warm up classes. Watch closely. You will get a feeling which horse is most ready to go win. It’s tangible, as though the horse is saying with confidence, “I’m ready to go do it, boss!” It’s more than just a hunch. And you can do it, I promise. Try it when you get to Las Vegas for the World Cup, you will be amazed with yourself how knowledgeable you really are about this sport.

The first bet is the three top teams for the Team Competition. My bet was America, Canada and Germany in that order. This was easy. America is on top right now, Germany is always at the top of the sport, and Canada, who is hot, hot, hot with the best team Canada has ever had, even with only three riders, as one dropped out with an injured horse. Of the three, Germany was suddenly the question mark. They looked strangely ill at ease in the warm up class, which is why you would move Canada up a notch.

The result was a shock. America and Canada had a jump-off for fir¬st place, a super competition, with America edging their way to the Gold, while Germany was stunningly out of the money in eighth place Equally shocking was Norway’s third place. If you thought, “This isn’t possible,” you were right. Norway got bounced for drugs, and Switzerland moved up to 3rd, a notch higher than expected. You, the better, now had all the clues you needed to make your bet on the Top Ten finishers in the Individual Championship.

Name Your Ten, Pardner!

My Top Ten (Written copy in a sealed envelope.)

Eric Lamaze: Canada 1st
Meredith Michaels Beerbaum: Germany 3rd
Beezie Madden: USA 4th
McLain Ward: USA 6th
Rodrigo Pessoa: Brazil (Finished 5th. Disqualify. Drugs.)
Ludger Beerbaum: Germany 7th
Jos Lansink: Belgium Tie 8th
Steve Guerdat: Switzerland Tie 8th
Laura Kraut: USA Tie 23rd
Ian Millar: Canada Tie 23rd

The Bottom Line

The result? So easy. Once again it worked. Ignoring the disqualification, because you bet on what you saw, that’s 8 out of 10 who performed true to form. That’s a bit unusual. Usually, 7 will win, or event 6. Are you ready? How are you going to bet when you get to the World Cup at Las Vegas? If you can get the current standings, go with it. If not, go with the names you know. The secret to naming the winners in advance is to remember that Winners Win! See you there!
John Quirk